July 28, 2009

With starting pitchers McGowan and Marcum returning down the line, the Blue Jays are retooling not rebuilding. They have Travis Snyder in
addition to Adam Lind for their OF plans while preferring to build
around Rios.  And while GM Riccardi’s trying to find suitors for Wells, it’s the same challenge as Matthews is for the Angels, almost no takers. 

It’s a productive
Jays offense for Riccardi at this point to begin with and why he’s
looking for top-of-the-rotation starting pitching compensation. The Angels hold that
edge as the best match over any presently between 3: Santana, Weaver,
or Saunders. Whether he decides that to the best interest now or
receiving the 2 first round draft picks 2011, he may ultimately turn to the Angels.

Elaborating on one Angels message boards poster’s view (theochalos) to attract with offering the exchange of money, the Angels might find a way to take the fairly large sum with Halladay and
Rolen off their books.

Rolen with 1 year and 11 million remaining would be the
Angels 3B backup protection should Figgins decide to walk after this year.  Though I’d love for them to find everything in their power that Figgins stays, it does lend for smart consideration to take on Rolen here.  Scioscia might not like it risky with disrupting the present winning flow, but clearly this would be front office strategy and preparation to accept.  

For this exchange of money to attract with taking Rolen back, offering Juan Rivera is the jingle to the Jays end, as there are plenty of suitors for him with 4 1/2 years remaining at his price.

We’re on to something here!

The Angels take Roy Halladay and Scott Rolen.  They give up Rivera and move Figgins to LF or to play
3B with Rolen to the DH from time to time.  Riccardi, meanwhile, would have Rivera to immediately chip, probably to the Giants with, ultimately, a 3-way deal involved.  Most important, the Angels have the protection and flexibility to choose from and where to invest between Figgins and Guerrero in the offseason.   They’d simply be moving Rivera out and Figgins in for the time being with nothing changed to the positions on the roster. 

I’m Angels’ Tony Reagins (and Bill Stoneman) and
approach JP Riccardi with Weaver, Rivera, Wood, and 2 prospects for
Halladay and Rolen, might he take it?! 

June 19, 2009

Looks like Brandon Wood might be a Minor League HOFer (Hall of Famer) while in the Halos system.  Deja vu all over again with fans eager for his return to the big club while he’s pounding it out in Salt Lake.  Only, his foreseen impact could be growing delusional as it withers in the Halos wilderness.

Wood’s pattern over the last 2 seasons:

Early season, swing’s mechanically messed up, presses, whiffs…couldn’t hit water with an oar from a boat. Goes back to AAA, tears and it up for a while until called up again, in September, and shows promise.

He’s along that pattern for the 3rd season in a row as Linus says, “it’s the Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown!”

He showed signs to correct shortening the swing to the end of last season with good pop, we get excited heading in 2009 while he had a promising Spring Training behind it, it deflates and he’s, ho hum, sent down again.  

He’s only 24 years old but the options running out are knocking on the Halos door (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_League_Baseball_transactions#Options). His stock value is taking a nose dive regardless of the present Salt Lake performance for them at this stage.  Hanging onto him that much longer without his having established major league level consistency already risks with the disposition of other organizations downplaying to take him without giving anyone in return. 

Strategically, I would trade him now as he tears it up in AAA, again, as they can’t have all this with him recurring into 2010.  It’s foolish they drag out facing that he must clear waivers before wishing to “send him down,” then.  Wood can continue to dazzle at Salt Lake with fans eagerly anticipating that final arrival.  Unfortunately, however, the organization cannot allow for it to reach that point.  If history repeats itself, they bring him up soon, as they must, and he doesn’t respond, their window shatters with the lost opportunity for another team’s window by their player(s) behind trade. To their own benefit and good service to him, refresh him with the change of scenery without the pressure whether to remain in the Halos system and the window already closing. 

He’d get it anyway, so it’s best they trade him instead without the re-attempted call up, and why I suggest Jonathan Sanchez to swap with both their stocks dropping now.  2 weeks ago, it looked short for the Giants to consider, but that might not be the case now.

June 5, 2009

Factor In the Figgins-Aybar Connection

Aybar
and Figgins appear the future plan.  Figgins for atop the lineup and
Aybar toward the bottom.  It’s a lethal combo as Aybar continues to develop into a good switch-hitter, like Figgins. 
I think the Halos will re-invest in Figgins who’s proven an invaluable
player.  Scioscia’s prediction holds from a few seasons ago that he’d
emerge into a premier lead off hitter.  He is quite the hitter for Halos
fans to be proud about, but he’s also of important connection to
Aybar’s development into a good switch-hitter, himself.  Scioscia’s
planned and is overseeing the combo materialize and is why I think they will
re-invest in Figgins long-term, most importantly.

Wood’s
a misfit, here, where Scioscia would probably find it upsetting with the
Figgins-Aybar connection severed beyond this year.  So, as it’s foolish the Halos front office doesn’t
retain Figgins, the time is now to trade Wood!  

3B Matt Brown
would serve the backup and Wood looks more and more to benefit with a
change of scenery.  I’m pointing to a match and moment’s opportunity to seize. 
We’re talking about a 26-27 y/o lefty with a electric, Major League
stuff that the Giants might be putting on the block.  Stamina might be a
question, but I buy into that he might build it up and develop into a
top lefty starting pitcher with the time, here.  If it fails, he’s
quite valuable for the bullpen as fall back.

Here’s Jonny!!!

If
the Halos happen to be shopping for relief help now, they can put
Sanchez there.  That temporary measure plus where he may fill in the
voids opening between starting and relief down the
line makes his acquisition even more attractive for the Halos.  All the
while, the time invested to his continued development off the great
stuff from scratch.

Even if Wood were part of the trade and he
pans out better in the Giants system, no regrets.  Who’s to say he
would have in the Halos system?  It’s how the chips fall and I’d be
satisfied to have received that caliber of a lefty for him at the time,
still.

June 3, 2009

The Giants are shopping Jonathan Sanchez for offense (<http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/06/heyman-on-contenders-needs.html).  Despite that the Halos appear without the position to give that up on their end now, they should seriously look to the alternative of getting him, still.  Sanchez, 27, is an impressive young quality, potentially elite lefty starting pitcher with his strikeouts typically approaching his innings pitched (<http://sanfrancisco.giants.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=456043) that they can have under their control for years ahead.      

With that in mind, as well as the Giants are aware, it will take an attractive offensive player to get him, and one they don’t risk losing in the off-season.    

Why Sanchez when it would be somebody out of the Halos rotation plan upon his arrival?  We know that Lackey’s in his final year but there’s that chance he’ll re-sign as much as the Halos have had the expressed committed past.  Santana remote, too, as an elite to be (despite the recent struggles).  He appears on extended spring training though I’m concerned about the velocity drop, and if it remains down after more work, there’s caution with the wind of that original injury that he may need to be shut down longer than anticipated.

Knock on wood that doesn’t happen!  What a coincidence, there might be a piece there at the same time here!  I’ll get to that later, but all serves as a sign here to go after Sanchez.        

The Halos current rotation has Lackey, Weaver, Saunders, Santana, Palmer/Escobar/Moseley.  Notice how Santana has swapped rotation spots with Weaver from last season?  Figure Weaver and Saunders in while Scioscia would have a “spinning head” multitude of options for the 5th spot (but with nothing for him to get discombobulated about).  If Santana turns out needing to be shut down this season, Palmer and Escobar may fill the 4 and 5 spots.  If Escobar doesn’t maintain returning with the starting pitcher stamina, however, Scioscia ends up putting his strong-arm reinforcement to the bullpen.  (God knows, they might just want to begin right there for the 180 the bullpen has done this year!).  And, if Palmer’s Cinderella Story strikes 12 later, the rotation suddenly teeters needing reinforcement  

Another sign that stares Angels GM Reagins (and Stoneman) in the face: combine that with whether Lackey and Escobar remain beyond next season to go after Sanchez.  
 
Call me an incredulous armchair quarterback here to persuade Reagins (and Stoneman), but I’m demonstrating intriguing moment’s opportunity at the same time.  We’re keeping in mind that getting Sanchez would allow the Halos to emphasize for future offensive balance of power that’s needed in their system at this stage, while it maintains their position to deal from pitching strength that has been a part of Halos smart GManship.  And to their advantage, they could leverage off it as early from next week’s June 9 draft by their quality picks coming after losing last year’s free agents if they wheel it within the next few days ahead.  Talk about seizing the moment!!

Obviously there’s no point if they’re preoccupied with getting Peavy and it’s already determined he’ll come to Anahiem.  Him and Peavy might send Lackey the wrong signal, for one, and it’s worst case scenario caught with a 6-man rotation if Peavy came and Lackey extends with Sanchez in.  Reagins “forced of hand” to deal off between Weaver, Saunders, Santana, or Sanchez is a waste, yielding less for the return commodity.  Jump on Sanchez if Peavy’s jumping elsewhere.         

What of the Halos Hand Could Come of Sanchez?

The Giants appear most to prefer him swapped for the young offensive player reasonably priced or valued under their control some years ahead, namely for 2B and/or OF.  Pablo Sandoval has the potential to move to 1B with 3B open.  Offer Brandon Wood up front and a C grade prospect to seal it off.  The Halos are going to extend Chone Figgins anyway, Wood would most benefit by a change of scenery altogether.  The Giants might actually go for it here after they realized it’s futile to try to catch the Dodgers this season and most beneficial they have a power-hitting infield staple missing as part of their outlook presently.  Consider also, with the Giants having bid for Matthews the 2006 off-season, Matthews might consider lifting the no-trade clause if both sides can settle on the remaining money.  If it develops into Wood and Matthews for Sanchez, then the Halos should receive a B grade prospect in return.  They’re loosing Wood but gaining with the rare quality lefty starting pitcher.  I’d especially be willing to take the chance that it might open for greater offensive concentration with this and upcoming years drafts and future trades.

May 27, 2009

Vlad’s back, yet the Halos, still, may find a power shortage when it’s all said and done heading into the post season.  Yes, they’ll still get there with what they have and are rejuvenating upon now, barring injuries.    

Meanwhile, Houston is with call to arms (http://blogs.chron.com/sportsjustice/archives/2009/05/how_much_longer.html), Tejada’s in his walk year where they almost certainly will not re-sign him with how things have turned out, and may be looking to shed payroll.    

All right, let’s cut to the chase, the Halos may have a match to the best of both worlds:

Jared Weaver and Kendry Morales for Lance Berkman, would you do it?

Cot’s estimates Berkman’s due 14.5 mil per year with 15 mil option to 2011 with the contract remainder (http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/houston-astros.html).  The Halos might be reluctant to consider passing on the future to the Stros with the savings and control for some years ahead, but the core concept gets Berkman’s magnitude impact bat into to the Halos lineup toward the more “overwhelming” objective while Stros management would take it to launch upon, themselves.  

Jeff Joyce, a host of “Home Plate MLB Radio,” commented “that the Halos have always seemed to be missing something” despite their formidable development over the years.  This may be Vlad’s last chance at the ring if they decline to re-invest in him, Torii signed to get his …there’s still a little more ooomph needed added to the pattern of normal course and Berkman makes it interesting.  

Berkman hasn’t set foot to an AL lineup that is a risk factor (evident by Matt Holliday with Oakland now) but Morales doesn’t compare with the impact until 2011, either.  Good timing might play here with Weaver’s stock rising and Boras his agent that they’d prefer not to deal with heading toward his arb eligible years and free agency.  

I’d rather the Halos hang around for A-Gonz (Adrian Gonzalez) should the Padres find it best to trade him sooner than realized to save and bolster their future, but the Padres are still 29th ranked in payroll now that could be devastating for them if they don’t work around HIM.  Thus, maybe best for the Halos to seize the moment’s opportunity with Berkman.

Have yet to pull the trigger on the “Colt 45″ here.  Knowing the Halos would have Berkman with giving up Weaver and Morales, it all boils down with whether it would vulnerably expose them and if they could fill the potential starting pitching void with free agency (without being outbid by the damn Yankees) or their farm.  Lackey’s in his walk year, too, without guarantee he’s secured beyond, therefore depending whether its almost certain Peavy won’t come here to protect against him with Weaver a trade centerpiece there, more importantly.  Without the glaring nearly-ready starting pitching prospects on the Halo horizon, especially with the Adenhardt loss…I just pulled back and eased the hammer in. 

Keep Weaver and Morales under control, kept clear of “Castlegate” until.        

April 22, 2009

The Twins found life with that weekend series…with Shields handing them the respirator Friday night. Their iron man out of the bullpen will be 34 years old this July 22.  Remember that he was 27 with his September call-up in 2002 before he became one of the most nasty setup men in the game years following.   But this age compounded with the relative reliever workload while oriented a thrower than a pitcher might be factoring of a concern now.  The stringiness given by his youth before of slinging the-almost-impossible-ball-to-hit might be winding up with age that he might have to find for new effectiveness adjusting mechanically.  Evident are the tendencies how he’s lost on the hill forcing everything without even a hitting a barn door early on this year, from the second half last year.  

Yes, he did patch up to reclaim the effectiveness the last part and into the playoffs of 2008, and there’s probably no reason he can’t again for this season.  But let’s face that it’s probably best Shields is given a change of venue at this point.  He’s too exposed, too used too, and before it’s too late the Halos may want to change their look to continue to fool the AL to their their winning ways. The 2008 Red Sox’ Jed Lowrie series winning walk off single tells it.  Otherwise, Halos fans grow cardiac by Scioscia’s loyalty wait (or weight, same thing) with him toward getting over the top.  

While I admire the Halos showing prominence by their homegrown youth-built plan, they win but haven’t won overwhelmingly like their opponents beating them of the post seasons since 2002.  Boston 2004, 07, and 08 (well, maybe not 08 with Lester the difference having exhausted his best with the ALDS before the ALCS, unfortunate for the Halos at that); Chisox 05.  They shot for Tex, 2008 Hot Stove, but haven’t looked beyond how to be overwhelming, seemingly content about Western Division Champs instead, overall.  Meanwhile, they blew the golden opportunity at “Mannyland” (of allowing Boras to get in the way by the Tex treatment) even while it turned out (unchanged from the Dodgers initial bid, boy what a waste of time that was!) that it would have taken about 1/3 the total investment committed for Tex (with Arte saying “he’s my guy!”), Scioscia expressing that he’d love to have Manny on “The Sports Lodge ” of Arte’s AM 830 radio station, only to have GM Reagins follow up the same day on the show ringing former GM Stoneman’s bell with a disappointing “tomahawk chop” rhythmic tone.  We’re moving forward with our own as Reagins said, but that’s without the loud ring that I criticize with the admiration.

It’s early in the season, they’ll get their 2 most dominant starting pitchers back and put together enough offense, again, to win the division, again, doing the 360.  Meanwhile, the front office counts on the original decision for a sleeping giant offense to emerge after starting this season 6-14 (that they might be headed toward), and risk with inferiority in the playoffs but the superior starting pitching of the Atlanta Braves past, for whom the bell tolls!      

As the Red Sox Theo Epstein, A’s Billy Beane, or Yankees Brian Cashman have done; Scot Shields, Gary Matthews, Jr., Bobby Abreu, Juan Rivera, Chone Figgins (whose in a walk year), Brandon Wood, Erick Aybar, Howie Kendrick …these are among a few pieces Reagins might float up to achieve for that overwhelming objective that’s been elusive of pattern.  Whether it’s to entice the Padres for Jake Peavy (as they revisit the idea), the Blue Jays for Roy Halladay (as their circumstances lean toward it), or even the Tigers for Miguel Cabrera (to relieve them of Detwa’s socioeconomic turmoil), it’s these type of players that give for that overwhelming winning, overdue with the Halos here.

March 25, 2009

I wouldn’t deal Matthews, not with those tools to Scioscia’s game plan advantage!  Money’s obviously the issue of trying to move him but that contract won’t be easy, not until there’s better determination.  Say they’re forced to take back some of the money that is 33 mil remaining over 3 years and 11 mil per year currently and another team takes him for 8 mil per year or less with the Angels saving 12 million or more over that remainder.  Rivera and Abreu are 5 mil apiece themselves looking closer to Matthews’ range that would result with the deal.  Rivera signed for 3 years and Abreu 1.  There’s not a glaring OF prospect on the Halo’s horizon.  With the likelihood they’ll extend Vlad for his career remainder but who’ll DH more games down the line with the defensive decline, 3 years buys time here for them defensively between Rivera and Matthews to the OF corners with Hunter.        

They invested in Abreu by his plate discipline as compensatory loss to Tex while he’s also a horrible OF defender.  The Halos prefer and have preferred to revolve the DH around as many positions as possible (while fortunate and clever of the player freshness to their advantage at the same time).  Holding Abreu will look more and more to thwart that plan (baffling Scioscia over that course).  That surprising bargain value the Halos signed Abreu for would seem to yield reasonable value in return if they were to turn around and trade him.  Plenty of takers that it’s 1 year, on top. 

Money’s still the reason the Halos lean on trading Matthews, despite, but as he continues to show they’re finding to recover off that original, proving better to their investment, while.   Trading Abreu could prove more wise. 

January 16, 2009

Well, there’s nothing that came out of my “Halos Hot Stove Crystal Ball.” No Tex, no AJ but a chess pawn thrown into King York’s treasure chest (as the Boras brought forth Tex to the king to his own shillings after
taking CC and AJ’s agents’ dance leads down dollar drive toward The
Big Apple).

I should’ve seen it coming, though initially denying Tex would take the elements and respectable offer over the mighty dollar and stay here.  (Not like 160 million over 8 is not enough, but hey…maybe he’ll be happy)!  We’ll see how his fertilizer by “block” to the Red Sox wears on him after awhile.     

No mulligans to a crystal ball but, less than a month pitchers and catchers report to Spring training and I’ll wave my hands again…though the ball still hazy. 

Assuming it would take Howie Kendrick as part of the deal to get Jake Peavy (or even Roy Halladay as he emerges on the block), I’m throwing in these trade mixers to suggest.  Whether to their advantage or disadvantage, you be the judge.  

But before I begin, Vlad will be quite the offensive stop-gap against the worry without Tex.    Ambassador Torii recently shared Vlad’s looking quite lean (going into this final contract year).  Added to “Rex The Wonder Dog’s” famous quote, “east and west at his best, from his nose to his toes thats how Vladdy goes”…when he sheds, he shreds.  Vlad will be a pitcher’s PITA in 2009, where the Halos will find it serious to consider locking him down his career remainder!

The Orioles have supposedly put elite lead off 2B Brian Roberts on the block. Sticky though, while he’s a free agent 2010.  Roberts is the better defender than Kendrick, with the verdict out on the bat as Kendrick projects quite well.  Provided it can be determined Roberts will extend, the Halos may seriously consider trading for him in order to leverage Kendrick for Peavy.  The Orioles are obviously asking for pitching where the Halos could give them Jared Weaver and Sean Rodriguez (as the 2B compensation for Roberts).  Weaver is arbitration eligible 2011 and 12 and without free agency until 13, I’d expect the Orioles to bite on this worm.

Chone Figgins has been on Chisox GM Kenny Williams’ radar over a few seasons now and the Halos could leverage him for Dye or Konerko.  I don’t know how Dye fits into their present logjam OF with Vlad, Torii, and Rivera maning it (and GMJ returning early to mid next season), but there’s room for Konerko in addition to Morales while two years have passed since Stoneman missed out on Konerko and Angel Stadium having always been his place to slug.  Konerko’s not a great defender to Scioscia’s emphasis, nor is Morales, but having both their bats in the lineup appeal making up for Tex (or even Manny’s) void.  Morales could continue to break in the glove at 1B platooning with Konerko at the DH, or play the occasional OF and even 3B (if they want to try him there again).  That the Halos have 3B prospect Matt Brown to backup, proceeding with this plan leaves Quinlan out.  Send Him, Figgins, and a prospect to the Chisox for Konerko.  The Chisox seem to prefer unloading Konerko’s contract while Figgins is on his final contract year with the Halos, it’s a match!    

Turns out after these deals up to this point the Halos improve defensively at 2B with Roberts,  move Wood to 3B , while putting the money to a different lead off man.  

Now for the blockbuster smash with the Padres.  They need middle infield, starting and relief pitching to compensate for Peavy and Hoffman’s loss.  If the Halos throw out there Kendrick, Adenhardt, and Jepson to start, Bud Black would have his say as that future foolish to pass up.  To get Kendrick for 2B would make the Padres jump at it alone, plus those arms for starting and relief?!  Let’s say the Padres say it’s not enough but indicate it’s just about there, despite.  To have it just about there is where the Halos would want it.  So lets look at who it would take to cap this deal off. 

Macier Izturis?  Don’t give up Izturis after giving up Rodriguez and the left side or middle infield backup.  Quinlan’s gone, too.  Hank Conger? Too foolish to trade away a scarce top catching prospect behind Napoli and Mathis. Matt Brown? The Padres have Kouzmanoff (who I envy of a clutch performer like Spiezio was), but holding Brown as valuable corner infield prospect would give them leverage down the line with either and they’d take it.  Unwise for the Halos to give up their hot corner backup as well, pass.  It would be too much over for them to give up Brown.  Willits? The Halos appear they could part with him with Morales and GMJ there after Konerko.  The Padres, meanwhile, could use the OF depth and speed versatility on the roster, throw him in. Now we have Kendrick, Adenhardt, Jepson, and Willits, do the Padres still view the Halos as too short from here?  Suppose they ask for Moseley, instead.  Too much for the Halos to give up; too much, Scioscia would say, to give up the beauty with having a starter or reliever.  Particularly, while he might slate him for the rotation 5th spot after Weaver and Adenhardt depart.  Back to Willits, then.  Add a sleeper prospect and call it a day.  Similar trade scenario with the Blue Jays and Roy Halladay, who appear in the same boat as the Padres needing pitching and middle infield prospects and depth.   
 
Drastic re-tooling here, discouraging that it looks like I’m stripping too much off the near future with these trades!  The Halos do, however, have a slew of quality draft picks coming their way in 2009 after losing Type A free agents Tex and K-Rod.  Thats right off the top, and they add a little more with Anderson and Garland signing elsewhere.  To get Peavy, Roberts, and Konerko of replacing Weaver, Figgy, and Kendrick…easy to consider!!  And, as Scioscia can slide Moseley for the 5th spot, even he prefers to keep him in the bullpen, Odalis Perez is a nice 5th spot starter bargain out there who can also go to the pen.   

The Now Hazy New Crystal Ball:

Weaver and Sean Rodriguez to the Orioles for 2B Brian Roberts (extended)
Chone Figgins, Rob Quinlan, and a prospect to the Chisox for 1B Paul Konerko
Kendrick, Adenhardt, Jepson, Willits, and prospects to the Padres for SP Peavy
Odalis Perez signed as a free agent to be the 5th starter.